Wednesday, January 7, 2009

SEC 2004 vs. SEC 2008

The argument this year has been that the SEC is down and that is the reason that Alabama and Ole Miss had such great success this year. The response to which by the Alabama fans is that the SEC was down in 2004 when Auburn went undefeated (it's always about Auburn isn't it with you people?) Here is the statistical breakdown of the SEC in those years:

Looking at win differentials
SEC from 03 to 04
Alabama improved by 3 wins
Auburn improved by 6 wins
Miss St. declined by 2 wins
LSU and Arkie declined by 3 wins
Ole Miss declined by 5 wins (eli leaving)

2 teams in the west improved and 4 declined

Georgia and Florida stayed the same
UT and UK improved by 1 win
South Carolina improved by 2 wins
Vandy is the only East team to decline (by 1 win)

3 teams in the East were up (AU had 3 wins against them)
2 Teams stayed the same (1 AU win)
1 team declined

All in all 5 teams were improved (4 AU wins), 2 stayed the same (1 AU win), and 5 declined (4 AU wins)

2007 to 2008
Ole Miss improved by 6 wins
Alabama improved by 5 wins
Arkansas declined by 3 wins
LSU, Auburn, and Miss St. declined by 4 wins

So 2 teams in the West improved and 4 teams declined

East
UF improved by 3 wins
Vandy improved by 2 wins
South Carolina improved by 1 win
UGA and UK declined by 1 win
Tennessee declined by 5 wins

So 3 teams improved (0 bama wins) and 3 teams declined (3 bama wins)

So you had 5 teams that improved (1 bama win) and 7 teams that declined (7 bama wins)

The total differential is in 04 the SEC was down 1 win, and in 08 the SEC was down 5 wins

In 2004 of Auburn's 9 SEC wins only 4 came against teams that declined from the year before

In 2008 of Alabama's 8 SEC wins 7 came against teams that declined from the year before and only 1 against an improved team (ole Miss)

In 2008 of Ole Miss' 5 SEC wins, 4 were against teams that declined from the year before and only 1 against an improved team (Florida, woohoo Rebels)

The SEC was indeed down this year and Alabama and Ole Miss reaped the benefits, both were improved teams no doubt, but they feasted on a weakened SEC and 5 of the 6 most disappointing teams in the nation were on Alabama's schedule (#1 Clemson, #2 Michigan, #3 Tennessee, #4 Auburn, #5 LSU, #6 Georgia (preseason #1 and all))

*Ed. note - 03 was a 12 game season and 04 was an 11 game season so i dropped one win each from 03 since every team put a nobody on their schedule for that extra game.

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